Anti-vaccination sentiment is still spreading in our communities. People have lost faith in the authorities and in the medical field, and they are finding their own way. Unfortunately for them, the decision not to vaccinate their children will backfire.

Just this morning I read that there is a Measles outbreak ongoing in Ohio. For months now I've been reading about a resurgence of polio in New York. And of course Military personnel will no longer be required to take the Covid vaccine. The backlash against vaccination (what people perceive as an assault on bodily autonomy) will result in an increased death rate from vaccinatable diseases.

It's not an easy question, when and how to vaccinate. I don't exactly trust the official recommendations either, because I know that the guidelines are created by a council packed with representatives of Big Pharma. I am sympathetic with those who are skeptical. And I see the writing on the wall. If you don't vaccinate smartly, you are destined to be diseased.

There are a lot of anti-vax media personalities and websites that are spreading a bunch of BS. You can't believe everything you read on the internet. Of course you know that. But you also can't believe everything you read that you already agree with. If you seek "information" that supports your current position about ANYTHING, you could be allowing Confirmation Bias to steer you into a trap.

Rather than seeking supportive information, seek out the information that tries to prove your belief wrong. Test your belief. Check your understanding against what the experts say. Check your medical knowledge against the CDC, or come bounce it on me. I am not parroting anyone's sound bytes, I am a true student of medicine. I am interested in scientific studies or background information that sheds light on the hard questions.

The problem with the anti-vax craze is that a lot of the so-called "information" is coming from people who have zero science background and very little understanding of the actual risks and benefits of vaccination. Unfortunately for the anti-vaxxers, their sources are misguided and downright wrong about a lot of things. And they and their kids will suffer and die as a result.

I am always one to look for silver linings, and this particular situation has just one, which is that a reduction in the human population would be a quick way to reduce our impact on the planet. We are destroying habitat and polluting air and water at such a rate as to cause massive suffering and death in the not-so-distant future. Anti-vaxxers are offering to remove themselves and their children from the human population which will be a boon to future generations who survive diseases because their ancestors were vaccinated.

A healthy friend of mine had Covid over the last couple of weeks.  She described it as the worst sore throat she'd ever had. When she described the testing that she had done it became apparent that she didn't know that DAY 5 is the day that you are likely to test positive--at least with the last few variants.  She tested herself during the first 4 days when she felt sick, and thought she didn't have Covid. She even went in for PCR testing.  All came back negative until day 5.

Experts say that the best way to home test is to test twice (or more) once you have symptoms, 48 hours apart. That's two DAYS apart, right?  Lots of people test just once when they get symptoms, and consider that test definitive.  It isn't. If that one test negative they think they have something other than Covid, but that could be a terrible mistake.

The message here is Don't Trust negative Covid tests before day 5 of feeling symptomatic. If you test negative after feeling sick for 3 days, and spend time with someone who then spends time with an elderly relative, you could conceivably cause the elderly person to die. 

This is why the new normal is to stay home if you feel sick.  Don't go to work.  Don't go be social.  Take the opportunity to rest and relax.  You know you need it anyway.  Take the time and slow the spread.

Oh and by the way I got my bivalent booster 2 days ago and I did not have nearly the massive response that I had to previous vaccines.  To me this means that I have not yet had the new variants that they are vaccinating us against.  This vaccine is FREE and it's available NOW and I recommend that as many people get it as possible, because it is still our best tool for limiting severe disease and death during the spikes that are going to come this winter. 

Go get your bivalent Covid vaccine, says this naturopath.  Why does this naturopath say get a vaccine?  I don't say you should get all vaccines, I say you should pick and choose.  Get this one because it will save a lot of lives. Because the benefits of the previous Covid vaccines far outweigh the risks, according to the science.  And believe me, I do look at the science.  I am even trained to recognize bogus "science" which is definitely out there.

Should you listen to the CDC?  I say yes.  They are on the comeback from a period of political distortion and I trust them more now than I did last year.

The WHO chief says AVOID "endgame" talk about Covid
https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-health-pandemics-united-nations-world-health-organization-d500f7942d0c920912261b30ab8bfd66

New Phase Initiated by Omicron
nytimes.com/live/2022/01/24/world/omicron-covid-vaccine-tests


Recently I became acquainted with a virologist here in PDX who, working at OHSU, helped develop an antibody test for covid. The test he developed has not gained wide usage. 

The virus makes 20+ proteins for which our bodies make antibodies, but the vaccines contain only the spike protein. What this means is that we can tell if people have had the virus, or if they have just had the vaccine. IMO this would be useful information at the population level.

It is still possible for us to know how many people have had the virus. Many people have probably had it but didn't know because they were asymptomatic. Many others have probably had it but don't know because testing wasn't available--especially early in the pandemic. Of course there are pockets of population who still haven't been exposed--but Omicron is reaching many of them. We will not have a good sense of the immunity level of humans on earth until we know the proportion who've had the disease.

Tracking the proportion who've had the vaccine is easier. I have a vaccination card that shows that I've had 3 jabs so far. For me it was mandatory because I work in healthcare. It was also a no-brainer because I'm old and fat enough that covid posed a significant risk, whereas the vaccine poses a miniscule risk.  Sure, it's uncomfortable and unpleasant to deal with the symptoms after vaccination.  I have some tricks for minimizing that.  But basically I agree with the vaccine pushers that getting the vast majority of us stuck makes good sense.

Infection does confer a higher level of immunity than the vaccine. This is because the virus makes those 20+ proteins and our immune systems recognize all of them. The vaccine only contains one protein, the spike. When you've had the virus, your body knows 19 more ways to recognize the virus than if you've just had the vaccine.

Our bodies have T-cells that remember viral proteins that they have met, and go on attack whenever the virus is in us. T-cell immunity is different from antibodies. T-cells last 10-20 years after an infection. B-cells make antibodies and some of them stick around a long time too. "Memory" B-cells live for years and make antibodies for an infection for about 6 months, then they go on break. They are still there to make more antibodies if needed.

Years after vaccination you still have memory B-cells that can resume antibody production, and T-cells that can go on the attack. Unless. Unless you are immune compromised somehow. Unless you get measles, which actually KILLS memory B-cells. This is why I recommend that most people get the MMR vaccine too. It protects you from the damages done by measles, which are more than most people realize.

The nugget here is that the immune system is complicated and managing a pandemic is even more complicated. The public messaging is simplistic. Public health officials are trying to get everyone to take the jab. This is for the benefit of the population; we do it for each other. What I wish that public health as an institution would do for us is invest in antibody testing AND some ways of evaluating immune function so that we can move forward and leave this pandemic era behind.

The world will never be the same again. Those of us who've lived through this pandemic are changed. So many people are dead. Some near to me. Some far away. Wearing a mask is hard. Being isolated from people is hard. But in spite of this we are resilient and we who have survived so far have a good chance of continuing to survive. Let us unite in caring for each other, in being decent to each other.

Let us plan ahead for the possibility of another pandemic in our lifetimes. The increasing density of humans on the planet increases the odds of pandemics. The crowding of our food animals also increases the odds. Rather than pretending that the conditions for pandemic-making are the same as they were in the past, we need to collectively recognize the reality of our situation and do our best to be prepared. It is never over.

In this polarized time, people are falling into groups as if it were their only safety.  In politics if you aren't a Republican, you're a Democrat.  In medicine you're either pro-vaccine, or an anti-vaxxer.  In religion you're either devout, or an atheist.  I'm here to tell you that none of those are true.

I'm an Independent, politically.  I'm a vaccine moderate, meaning I think some vaccines are good and some not so good, and some people should get vaccines that other people should not.  I'm "spiritual but not religious" meaning that I don't go to any church but I have my own practice which brings me into contact with the sacred and sublime, and I believe that some such practice is essential for becoming a moral human.  In other words, I live in the grey.

If you are like me and don't fit into the pre-made groups, welcome.  Fellow seekers, people who do not accept anyone else's narrative and prefer to learn and discover and make our own story, we are this nation's hope for the future, this world's hope for the future.  Collective intelligence relies on both diversity and disagreement; we have to be able to talk about tough issues without shutting each other down.  Without disrespecting each other.

When you already know all the answers, in spite of not having done the study for yourself, you are taking a shortcut to a dead end.  People who are sure that one political party or the other is 100% on the right track are mistaken.  People who think that every single human should be given the Covid-19 vaccine are just as mistaken as those who think it's a government effort to inject micro-chips and track us all.  People who think that every single soul who does not agree with their religion is going to hell, they're already in a philosophical dead end.  It can be hard to turn around in a dead end.

It is important to understand the best arguments of your adversaries.  It is valuable to develop real arguments for your positions rather than simply saying that the other side is wrong, or so-and-so told you so.  Humans being social creatures are susceptible to accepting whatever version of reality is used by those around us--but we are also intelligent enough to question it.

It's time to develop our moderateness, our humility and kindness.  Nobody can know everything.  Admitting that we don't know is an opportunity to learn.  Admitting that we've been listening to an authority figure who doesn't actually know gives us an opportunity to investigate new sources, to check out different experts, and to develop a more nuanced and complete view of our world.  The truth pretty much always lies somewhere in the grey.

Hello friends.  That was a nice long break from posting.  It isn't that nothing is happening on the Covid front, I just got busy with work and posting fell by the wayside.  But right now a snow storm is settling over my home and I anticipate being trapped here for a few days, so I'll have time to put down a few thoughts.

Age x Obesity + Degree of Infection => Aerosols Released
https://www.pnas.org/content/118/8/e2021830118
The equation above oversimplifies, but it captures the gist of the findings.  Basically there are a few people who are superspreaders, and the scientists are starting to understand who and why.  In their words "exhaled aerosol particles vary between subjects by three orders of magnitude, with exhaled respiratory droplet number increasing with degree of COVID-19 infection and elevated BMI-years.  What this means to us is that it is still reasonable to keep staying away from most people, keep wearing masks, and find a way to lose weight if you've gotten fat.  I've got friends who've had great success with Noom, and others who swear by the Ketogenic diet or the Whole 30.  But there is no doubt that obesity is a huge risk factor for bad outcomes and also for being a superspreader.

KIDS CAN TRANSMIT COVID AFTER ALL---AND PRETTY WELL
https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/09/30/largest-covid-19-contact-tracing-study-date-finds-children-key-spread-evidence
Remember how they were saying that children don't transmit the virus, so it's OK to send your kids to school?  Well that appears to have been wrong.  Best protect your kids from exposures so that they don't bring it home to you.

VACCINE TRACKER
https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Been dorking out about all the vaccines under development?  Yeah lots of people are.  Not me, so much, I'm just working and waiting.  My take on vaccination: we're going to want it, but we also don't want it to hurt us, so it's worth waiting.  If you end up getting a vaccine that works really well, great.  If you get a vaccine that kinda halfway works, get another one the next time you have a chance.  Do what you can to improve your immune response to the vaccine.  A future email newsletter will be about this subject.

MOST CONTAGIOUS STRAINS COME TO DOMINATE
https://todayspractitioner.com/covid-19/coronavirus-genetic-mutation-may-mean-it-is-more-contagious/#.X701_6pKjNZ
Lots of mutations have appeared in COVID-19 the ​ones that make it more contagious are a big advantage for the virus, meaning that more and more of the cases are the most highly contagious strains.  Which means that mask wearing is even more important, and during our current spike staying completely away from others may be of ultimate importance.  The study was done in Houston, TX: https://mbio.asm.org/content/11/6/e02707-20.

THE CURRENT SURGE IS WORSE THAN ANYTHING BEFORE
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/13/934566781/the-pandemic-this-week-8-things-to-know-about-the-surge
This article is 11 days old already but it documents how fast the case rate accelerated in the first half of November.  An increased case rate is inevitably followed by increased hospitalizations and deaths.  During this time when so many people have the virus, there is nothing you can do except stay away from people.  Even your dearest friends and relatives can give you the virus, or you can give it to them.  So take some time to hibernate, meditate, read books, and otherwise entertain yourself at home.  Don't even go shopping if you don't have to.  This situation could last all winter if lots of people ignore this advice, but you don't have to be the one dying or killing your dearest people.  Being a homebody is not the end of the world.  It's easier to be free when you are alive.

15% OF COVID DEATHS LINKED TO LONG AIR POLLUTION EXPOSURE
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/27/new-study-links-air-pollution-15-percent-of-covid-19-deaths

DO WE WANT RAPID ANTIGEN TESTING HERE?  YES.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02661-2
These tests are quick and inexpensive, and help us detect people who have enough virus on board to be contagious.  While it is true that they won't detect very low level infections, they will give us a good clue as to who should be allowed to go to the grocery store, or work.  The CDC was wrong when they said only symptomatic people should be tested.  To control a pandemic that has so many asymptomatic cases you need to test everybody.  The goal is to keep people who are contagious from sharing air (or bathrooms) with others.  So yes, get the $5 test that's ready in minutes, and use it to decide whether or not you should quarantine yourself.  Push your employer and your local governments to get behind wide distribution of this simple technology. It will definitely help.

​

NEW REVIEW OF MANY STUDIES ABOUT COVID ANTIBODIES
​https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18450-4

Released 2 days ago, this synthesis review shows that immunity to SARS-COV2 behaves in a normal way.  When a person has been quite sick and survived, they will likely have high antibody levels for that particular sickness--for a little while.  These are the people from whom you might wish to get convalescent plasma, because it's probably full of antibodies that could help.  But these antibodies ramp down pretty quickly once you clear the sickness.  A person who had the virus months ago will not have as many antibodies in their plasma as a person who just cleared it last week.  This is why there aren't studies to prove that convalescent plasma is a good treatment: it depends on the person's immune response and on the timing. 

IgM is the first kind of antibody your body makes, and appears about a week into an illness.  After that your body switches over to making IgG antibodies.  The fact that IgM antibodies decrease after the illness is NORMAL.  The IgG antibodies that are made next are the keepers.  They keep being made, but at lower and lower levels if you aren't still fighting the same virus.  This is also NORMAL.  Your body does the same thing for ever flu it ever encounters.  The fact that your body KEEPS making antibodies has to do with its MEMORY.  The immune system has cells called Memory B Cells--the ones that know how to make antibodies for a specific condition--they are your body's memory.  As long as your memory B cells survive, your body has a blueprint of how to make more B cells that can more antibodies to fight that remembered infection--in other words, it can respond faster.  

Memory B cells can live a long time but eventually they die.  The rate at which they die varies by age and lifestyle and also by what other infections you get.  One really good reason to get vaccinated against Measles is that getting measles infection can kill your memory B cells, making you MORE susceptible to things that you've had before.  And that stinks.  I hope that you are vaccinated for measles (the MMR is available if you aren't) and that you also get vaccinated for the flu this year, because it's good to protect your lungs. 

As for the COVID vaccine, we're likely to have a lot of options with varying efficacy that are available to most of us next year.  I don't know for sure what will come out, but I will say that for myself I will try to get one vaccine/year, hopefully different kinds each year, to help my body build up resistance by exposure to lots of different parts of the virus.  For those who are worried about adverse effects from vaccines, let me just say that they really are rare, a lot more rare than the diseases. Also you can also minimize your risk of adverse effects to vaccines by improving your ability to detoxify your body.  I can help with that for sure.  Spring and fall are good times for a deeper detox!

CDC GUIDANCE ABOUT COVID-19 FLIES IN THE FACE OF SCIENCE
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/17/health/coronavirus-testing-cdc.html
Several of our most important government agencies have fallen prey to anti-science populist politics and can no longer be trusted to sort through the information and tell us what to believe or trust.  We need good-faith gatekeepers of information in this age of excessive and some false "speech" clouding every question.  In this case the scientists (especially the ones that study infectious disease) are telling us that to contain this pandemic we need to test EVERYBODY and make sure that all the asymptomatic carriers are quarantined.  The CDC just issued a report saying that we shouldn't be tested unless we have symptoms.  This is what we have been doing, and it has resulted in nearly 200,000 dead in this country alone.  If we continue with this method, and with the likely efficacy of vaccines being in the neighborhood of 50%, and with the likely avoidance of the vaccine by somewhere around 50% of the population, we can expect A MILLION DEAD in this country alone.  So the CDC, in line with the authoritarian administration that has perverted it, is setting us up for an ongoing pandemic disaster.  Best get some great time outdoors with friends this fall while the weather is still good, because when wintertime comes smart people will keep their indoor social circles tiny.  TINY.